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Analysis and Education>Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD Breaks Below $4100 After Hawkish Fed Signals

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD Breaks Below $4100 After Hawkish Fed Signals

08.10.2026

XAUUSD hit a two-month low


On Wednesday, XAUUSD decreased by more than 1% and broke below the US$4100 mark, hitting a two-month low.


The Fed released hawkish monetary policy meeting minutes


On 7th October, local time, the Fed released September 15-16 FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes. All participants supported the Fed increasing the interest rate by 25 basis points, and most participants believed that it is appropriate to further raise the interest rate during the year, according to the meeting minutes.


The USDX rose significantly


On Wednesday, the USDX continued climbing. It reached 102.50 for some time. It ended up 0.42% at 102.27.


The bearish market trend prevailed in the short term


the Chart of the Day


On the chart of the day, XAUUSD was prone to fluctuation and fell. The bearish market trend prevailed in the short term. In terms of technical indicators, MACD went downwards after death cross occurred, showing that XAUUSD will decline further. Investors should focus on whether XAUUSD will break through the support at 4066. It will fall with potential support at 4020 if it breaks below 4066.


4-hour Chart


On the 4-hour chart, XAUUSD was prone to fluctuation and fell. The bearish market trend prevailed. In terms of technical indicators, moving averages went downwards, showing that the market trend is bearish. Investors should focus on whether XAUUSD will break through the resistance at 4150. It will decline if it rebounds but is capped at 4150.


Key resistance: 4150,4184

Key support: 4066,4020


Generally speaking, the bearish market trend prevailed in the short term. Investors could sell as XAUUSD rebounds during the day.

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